TORONTO – STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF BETTING UPDATE – It all comes down to Game 7 in Toronto as the Maple Leafs (-130 ML) host the Florida Panthers (+110 ML) at Scotiabank Arena Sunday night, puck drop at 7:30 PM ET.
Toronto forced the decider with a tight 2-0 win on the road in Game 6, but if history is any guide, bettors beware—the Leafs have lost six straight Game 7s, all in the first round, and haven’t won a Game 7 since 2004.
On the flip side, Florida brings swagger and a perfect 2-0 road Game 7 record, including last season’s Stanley Cup-clinching win over Edmonton.
The winner advances to face the Carolina Hurricanes, already waiting in the Eastern Conference Final.
Betting Trends & Series Snapshot
- Leafs 12-15 all-time in Game 7, but 7-3 at home
- Panthers 3-1 all-time in Game 7, including 2-0 on the road
- Florida coach Paul Maurice is 5-0 lifetime in Game 7s
- Leafs coach Craig Berube is 2-1, with a Stanley Cup win in 2019
- Under has hit in 3 of the last 4 games in the series
- Florida is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games
Player Props & Goalie Notes
Toronto Players to Watch (Game 7 history):
- Max Domi: 3G, 1A (2-3 in Game 7)
- William Nylander: 2G, 2A (0-5 in Game 7)
- Auston Matthews: 3 assists, still chasing his first Game 7 goal
- Matt Murray (backup): 2-0 in Game 7 starts (1.24 GAA, .935 SV%)
Florida Players to Watch (Game 7 history):
- Brad Marchand: 3G, 4A in 12 Game 7s (7-5 record)
- Sergei Bobrovsky: 2-0, 1.88 GAA, .933 SV%
- Matthew Tkachuk: 1G, 2A (3-0 in Game 7s)
- Carter Verhaeghe: 2G, 2A (2-0 in Game 7s)
Betting Insight & Prediction
Toronto enters as the favourites on the moneyline (-130) with public sentiment backing them on home ice. However, the combination of Florida’s road confidence, Maurice’s perfect Game 7 coaching record, and Bobrovsky’s elite playoff form makes the Panthers an attractive underdog (+110).
For bettors eyeing the total at 5.5, consider the recent tight-checking trend. With so much at stake, a low-scoring game is in play, especially with both teams showing the ability to lock down defensively in elimination games.
Best Bets to Watch:
✔ Panthers ML (+110) for value
✔ Under 5.5 goals (-120)
✔ Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (+150) – chasing his Game 7 breakthrough
✔ Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists (+130) – playmaker in big games
