TORONTO — The Toronto Maple Leafs are back home and heavily favored to close out their first-round series against the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET; CBC, TVAS, SN, ESPN). But after dropping Game 4 in overtime, bettors should tread carefully — this series has gotten tighter than the odds suggest.
Leafs Still Leading, But Momentum Slipping?
Despite a strong series start, the Maple Leafs failed to capitalize on their first elimination opportunity Saturday, falling 4-3 in overtime after clawing back from two separate deficits. Toronto still holds a 3-1 series lead, but the Senators now have the emotional edge after surviving three straight overtime games.
Head coach Craig Berube is banking on his stars — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies — to settle things quickly in Game 5.
“They’ve responded all year,” Berube said Sunday. “Leadership will be the key again.”
Betting Trends: Toronto Dominant at Home — But History Lingers
Toronto has been dominant at Scotiabank Arena all season, one of the NHL’s top home teams against the puck line. However, playoff bettors know the harsh stat: the Maple Leafs are 1-12 in elimination games since 2017.
Ottawa, meanwhile, is embracing the underdog role — and could be a sneaky moneyline play. Head coach Travis Green isn’t worried about long-term odds, only about winning “the next game.”
“You’d have to ask them if doubt’s creeping in,” Green said. “We just believe in ourselves.”
The Senators are 3-0 ATS in the last three games, all decided in overtime.
Player Props and Power Play Watch
Auston Matthews is due for a breakout after hitting the post in overtime and being held without a goal in Game 4. Matthews anytime goal scorer props remain one of the more popular plays for Toronto bettors — and the pressure is mounting.
Special teams could swing Game 5’s outcome: Toronto squandered a critical four-minute power play in OT on Saturday. A sharper man-advantage could spell an early blowout if the Leafs tighten up execution.
Best Bets and Insights
- Moneyline: Toronto (-220), Ottawa (+180)
- Puck Line: Toronto -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 6.5 Goals (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Best Bet: Lean toward Toronto ML, but consider Ottawa +1.5 on the puck line if you expect another tight contest. The Over has hit in three of the four games this series — worth a serious look.
🏒 Game 5 Quick Picks: Maple Leafs vs Senators
🔹 Moneyline:
Toronto Maple Leafs -220
Ottawa Senators +180
🔹 Puck Line:
Toronto -1.5 (+115)
Ottawa +1.5 (-135)
🔹 Over/Under:
6.5 Goals
- Over (-120)
- Under (Even)
🔹 Top Prop Bets:
✅ Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (+100)
✅ John Tavares Over 0.5 Points (-165)
✅ William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)
🔹 Best Bet:
✔️ Toronto ML (-220) + Over 6.5 Goals (-120) — Parlay Potential!
🔹 Longshot Value:
🎯 Senators Win + Both Teams Score 3+ Goals (+400)
