OTTAWA — Bettors who stayed loyal to the Leafs in Game 6 walked away happy Thursday night, as Toronto took care of business on the road with a 4-2 win over Ottawa to close out the series. It was Max Pacioretty — a longshot story if there ever was one — who played hero, scoring the go-ahead goal late in the third and sealing Toronto’s first-round triumph. The Leafs advance to face the Florida Panthers in Round 2.
Moneyline Pays Out, Pacioretty the Unexpected Hero
Listed around -120 to -130 on the road depending on the book, the Leafs bounced back from two straight losses and delivered for their backers. Max Pacioretty, who hadn’t played a full season and didn’t appear until Game 3, broke a 2-2 tie with 5:39 to play — a go-ahead goal from the top of the circle that beat Linus Ullmark clean.
“I’ve thought I was done playing more than once,” Pacioretty said post-game. “But here I am, just thankful to contribute.”
Props bettors who took a flier on Pacioretty were richly rewarded. The veteran winger, 36, was nowhere near the top of the board in most point or goal-scoring markets, making his performance one of the night’s biggest surprises.
Leafs’ Big Guns Hit Overs
If you were riding William Nylander and Auston Matthews overs, you cashed in. Nylander posted three points (2G, 1A), including the empty-net dagger that iced it. Matthews scored the game’s first goal on a power play — ending a 31-chance elimination-game drought for Toronto’s special teams.
Matthews also went 16-for-22 on faceoffs (72.7%) and dominated puck possession. His all-around play hit most performance-based prop bets, and he looks like a solid futures candidate for Conn Smythe discussions — especially if Toronto can get past Florida.
Total Hits Under in Tight Defensive Finish
With the total set around 6 goals, this one pushed or hit the under depending on line movement. It was 2-2 midway through the third before Pacioretty’s game-winner and a late empty-netter pushed it to 4-2.
Goalie Anthony Stolarz made 21 saves in the bounce-back win after being pulled in Game 5. He may not have been heavily leaned on, but he did enough to settle Toronto’s crease.
Senators Out, But Cover the Series Spread
Despite the elimination, Ottawa (+1.5 on the series spread) covered for backers who expected a tighter battle. After dropping the first three, the Sens clawed back to force a Game 6 — and had this one tied late thanks to Brady Tkachuk’s tip and a wild-angle bank shot by David Perron.
While their first playoff appearance since 2017 ended in heartbreak, Ottawa exceeded market expectations and will be an interesting watch for futures bettors heading into 2025.
Next Up: Leafs vs Panthers — Betting Markets Heating Up
Toronto now draws the Florida Panthers, a team that bounced them last postseason. Expect the series line to be tight — likely opening close to a pick’em with slight lean toward Florida given their depth and playoff pedigree.
Key early betting storylines:
- Can the Leafs finally break through the second round curse?
- Will Matthews or Nylander gain Conn Smythe steam?
- How will goalie matchups shake out? Bobrovsky vs Stolarz could create volatility.
Early bird bettors should look at series goal totals and Nylander/Matthews point props, given their consistent production so far.
BetNews Angle:
Pacioretty’s story is the kind of playoff script bettors dream about — low exposure, high return, clutch timing. Toronto’s win resets the Eastern Conference board, and Round 2 betting is about to get spicy.
