TORONTO – The second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs brings us a heavyweight Atlantic Division showdown: the top-seeded Toronto Maple Leafs (+108 points) versus the defending Cup champion Florida Panthers (+98 points). Puck drops Monday night in Toronto, and this series is rich with betting angles. Let’s break it down.
Leafs vs. Panthers: Series Odds & Head-to-Head Trends
- Season Series: Panthers 3-1
- Playoff History: Panthers won the 2023 second-round series in 5 games
- Game 1 Line: Leafs -135 / Panthers +115 (O/U: 5.5)
Both teams dominated the Atlantic Division during the regular season, combining to hold first place for 174 of 178 days. The stage is set for a clash of elite offenses, physical defense, and goaltenders who can steal games.
Recent Form & First Round Recap
Toronto Maple Leafs:
Outlasted the Ottawa Senators in six games after taking a 3-0 series lead. They stumbled late but closed it out thanks to William Nylander, who leads the Leafs with 9 points (3G, 6A) and was the difference-maker in Game 6.
Florida Panthers:
Cruised through Tampa Bay in five games, limiting the Bolts to just 12 total goals and shutting down their power play (2-for-18). They did it without top-pairing D-man Aaron Ekblad in three of those wins—he’ll miss Game 1 via suspension.
Key Betting Angles
1. Goaltending Stability
- Leafs: Anthony Stolarz (6 starts, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%) has taken over playoff duties. Quietly solid, but unproven under deep playoff pressure.
- Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky (Cup champ, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%) has proven playoff pedigree and stood tall in Round 1, especially under siege in Game 5.
📊 Edge: Panthers. Bobrovsky’s experience and clutch saves give bettors confidence, particularly for Under 5.5 wagers.
2. Special Teams Differential
- Toronto: Power play was effective vs. Ottawa (6-for-17, 35%).
- Florida: Shut down Tampa’s top-5 power play, killing 15 straight in one stretch.
📊 Edge: Lean Leafs on PP scoring props—especially Nylander Over 0.5 PPG.
3. Experience Factor
- Panthers have been to back-to-back Cup Finals and play a disciplined playoff structure.
- Leafs haven’t been past the second round since 2002, but have added Cup winners like Ekman-Larsson, Lorentz, and Stolarz.
đź“Š Edge: Panthers for series bets. Experience under pressure matters.
Prop Watch: Player Performance Bets
Top Leafs Player Props
- William Nylander: Leads the team in playoff scoring. Value on Over 1.5 points in Game 1.
- Auston Matthews: Always a goal threat—consider First Goal Scorer bets.
Top Panthers Player Props
- Matthew Tkachuk: 5 points in 5 games, scored twice in Round 1’s opener. Strong play for Anytime Goal Scorer.
- Brad Marchand: 4-0 in playoff series vs. the Leafs, 29 career postseason points against Toronto. Bet on Over 0.5 Points.
Series Outlook & Best Bets
Series Prediction: Panthers in 6
Best Bet: Panthers to win series (+125)
Game 1 Lean: Under 5.5 goals
Player Prop Parlay: Nylander Anytime Point + Tkachuk Anytime Goal (+245)
Line Movement Watch
With Ekblad suspended for Game 1 and Marchand’s history vs. Toronto, expect sharp action to push Florida’s Game 1 moneyline closer to even by puck drop.
