The 152nd Kentucky Derby arrives on Saturday carrying the weight of history, heartbreak, and hope in equal measure. From a record-threatening sire to a sentimental favourite, a father-and-son trainer rivalry to a breaking late scratch, TwinSpires.com/edge has the complete guide to the storylines that will make Derby 152 one for the books.
⚠ BREAKING: THE PUMA SCRATCHED FROM DERBY 152 ⚠
The Puma has been scratched from the 152nd Kentucky Derby, eliminating one of the field’s most buzzed-about contenders just hours before post time.
The scratch ends a compelling Derby narrative. Trained by Gustavo Delgado for OGMA Investments and partnered by Javier Castellano, The Puma had drawn comparisons to 2023 Derby winner Mage, another lightly-raced Florida-based colt from the same Marquee Bloodstock sourcing operation.
Like Mage, The Puma burst onto the scene in Florida, won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and posted an excellent second in the Florida Derby (G1) before pointing to Louisville.
The scratch had also attracted celebrity attention. Michael Iavarone, best known for his association with 2008 Derby and Preakness champion Big Brown, had recently bought into The Puma’s ownership group, with further high-profile names reported to be involved.
The Puma’s withdrawal reduces the field to 19 runners for Derby 152.
1. RENEGADE: REPOLE’S REDEMPTION, THE RAIL, AND A RECORD FOR PLETCHER
For owner Mike Repole, the Kentucky Derby has been a story of near-misses stretching 15 years. Juvenile champion Uncle Mo was scratched before the 2011 edition. Forte, another juvenile champion, was ruled out on the eve of the 2023 race. Now comes Renegade, the dominant Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, co-owned with breeders Robert and Lawana Low.
Irad Ortiz Jr., five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey, chose Renegade over fellow top contenders Commandment and Further Ado — a significant vote of confidence from a rider still seeking his first Derby trophy.
The complication: Renegade drew Post 1. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986 — a 40-year drought across 39 subsequent editions. The 20-stall Steriline gate introduced in 2020 has somewhat eased the physical challenge, and Renegade possesses the explosive late kick to navigate traffic.
Should Renegade prevail, trainer Todd Pletcher would claim a record-equalling third Kentucky Derby victory, joining the legendary “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch on the all-time trainers’ list. His previous Derby wins came with Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017).
2. INTO MISCHIEF: ONE WIN FROM IMMORTALITY
Perennial leading sire Into Mischief already stands alongside 19th-century stallions Virgil and Falsetto, and 20th-century titans Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea, with three Kentucky Derby victories: Authentic (2020), Mandaloun (2021 via DQ), and Horse of the Year Sovereignty (2025). A fourth would be unprecedented in the history of the race.
Crucially, Into Mischief does not need to rely on Renegade alone. He also saddles Commandment, winner of the Florida Derby (G1), and Potente, victor of the San Felipe (G2) — giving the Spendthrift patriarch a three-pronged assault on the record books.
3. MOTT vs. MOTT: A DERBY FIRST FOR FATHER AND SON
Only 3½ years into his independent training career, Riley Mott makes his Kentucky Derby debut with not one but two contenders: Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt and Wood Memorial (G2) upsetter Albus. Standing in his way, among others, is his father — Hall of Famer Bill Mott — who saddles Chief Wallabee, who adds blinkers after near-misses in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby.
According to Derby historical records, the only prior father-son trainer rivalry in the race came in 1964, when Red Wingfield and son Bobby sent out Dandy K. (8th) and Wil Rad (10th). This time, both camps have genuine first-three aspirations.
Should Chief Wallabee win with jockey Junior Alvarado, the Mott–Alvarado team would replicate their 2025 Derby success with Sovereignty, potentially matching the consecutive-year feat of Lucien Laurin and Ron Turcotte with Riva Ridge (1972) and Secretariat (1973). Bill Mott would also earn a third Derby win overall, joining Fitzsimmons and Hirsch on the trainers’ list.
4. EMERGING MARKET: THE BOLD MOVE FROM CONSERVATIVE CONNECTIONS
Trainer Chad Brown is not known for Derby fever. His typical approach is to give promising young horses more time rather than pitch them into the Derby cauldron. He voluntarily removed Iron Honor and Ottinho from consideration this spring.
That makes his decision to run the 2-for-2 Emerging Market all the more telling. The Louisiana Derby (G2) winner has shown poise and professionalism far beyond his experience, and his owner — hedge fund titan Seth Klarman of Klaravich Stables — is equally known for hard-headed realism.
When connections this cautious commit to the Derby, it signals genuine belief. Jockey Flavien Prat, whose own Derby win came via disqualification aboard Country House (2019), will be looking for an unambiguous official victory from Post 15.
5. SO HAPPY: A SENTIMENTAL STORY AND A RECORD FOR MIKE SMITH
Trainer Mark Glatt makes his Derby debut under the most poignant of circumstances, mourning the loss of his wife, Dena, who passed away in February. The name of his contender — So Happy — landed with bittersweet resonance when the colt surged late to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1), a moment connections felt Dena’s presence deeply.
The historical stakes are high for jockey Mike Smith. At 59 years of age, Smith would become the oldest jockey ever to win the Kentucky Derby — five years older than record-holder Bill Shoemaker, who was 54 when he guided Ferdinand to victory in 1986. A two-time Derby winner (Giacomo, 2005; Justify, 2018), Smith would also move up to third on the all-time winners’ list with a third trophy. Simply by running, he extends his own record to 29 Derby mounts, surpassing Shoemaker’s 26.
6. BRAD COX: A HOMETOWN WIN ON THE TRACK, NOT IN THE STEWARDS’ ROOM
Louisville native Brad Cox is a Kentucky Derby winner on the record books — but his Mandaloun was awarded the 2021 trophy long after raceday, following the disqualification of first-past-the-post Medina Spirit. An actual, unambiguous on-track victory would warrant a proper hometown celebration for the trainer who grew up in the shadow of Churchill Downs.
Cox sends out two proven dirt performers: Florida Derby winner Commandment with Luis Saez — himself denied an official Derby win after Maximum Security’s disqualification in 2019 — and Blue Grass (G1) romper Further Ado with Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who would claim a record-equalling fourth Derby win. Jeff Ruby Steaks scorer Fulleffort was scratched earlier this week with an ankle chip.
7. CHERIE DEVAUX: MAKING HISTORY IN THE TRAINER’S RANKS
Cherie DeVaux arrives at Churchill Downs with the blueblood Golden Tempo, a sneaky third in the Louisiana Derby. A former assistant to Chad Brown, DeVaux has already developed a champion (She Feels Pretty) and a Breeders’ Cup winner (More Than Looks). Only 18 starters in Derby history have been trained by women, and three have placed — Shelley Riley’s Casual Lies (2nd, 1992) the closest to glory. DeVaux has the talent and the horse to rewrite that chapter.
8. JAPAN’S GROWING DIRT AMBITION
Japan’s quest for Kentucky Derby glory intensifies in 2026 with two representatives. Danon Bourbon, an unbeaten Japan Road invitee and a Kentucky-bred son of Maxfield, brings raw talent if limited experience. Wonder Dean earned his place via the UAE Derby (G2) and has trainer Daisuke Takayanagi — who finished fifth with T O Password in 2024 — believing he has a better profile this time. Champion Forever Young’s near-miss third in 2024 underlines that a Japanese winner is no longer a matter of if, but when.
9. BAFFERT CHASING AN UNPRECEDENTED SEVENTH
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert’s official Derby tally stands at six — tied with Ben Jones for the all-time record — with his Medina Spirit win struck from the books by disqualification. He saddles Potente (Juan Hernandez) and Litmus Test (Martin Garcia, back in blinkers) in pursuit of a record-breaking seventh. Both would need to improve to challenge the leaders, but Potente in particular cannot be entirely dismissed.
LATE SCRATCHES: WHO IS OUT OF DERBY 152
Horse
When
Reason
The Puma
Race Day
⚠ BREAKING — Scratched race day; connections TBC
Right to Party
Friday
Scratched by regulatory veterinarian
Fulleffort
Thursday
Bone chip in left hind ankle
Silent Tactic
Wednesday
Bruised foot
Their departures allowed Great White, Ocelli, and Robusta to enter the main field as also-eligibles. The Puma’s scratch reduces Derby 152 to 19 runners.
2026 KENTUCKY DERBY — OFFICIAL ODDS & FIELD
Churchill Downs • Race 12 • Saturday May 2, 2026 • Post time approx. 7:02 PM ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Odds
1
Renegade
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Todd Pletcher
5-1
2
Albus
Manuel Franco
Riley Mott
44-1
3
Intrepido
Hector Berrios
Jeff Mullins
46-1
4
Litmus Test
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
26-1
6
Commandment
Luis Saez
Brad Cox
5-1
7
Danon Bourbon
Atsuya Nishimura
Manabu Ikezoe
14-1
8
So Happy
Mike Smith
Mark Glatt
5-1
10
Wonder Dean
Ryusei Sakai
Daisuke Takayanagi
24-1
11
Incredibolt
Jaime Torres
Riley Mott
24-1
12
Chief Wallabee
Junior Alvarado
Bill Mott
7-1
14
Potente
Juan Hernandez
Bob Baffert
21-1
15
Emerging Market
Flavien Prat
Chad Brown
9-1
16
Pavlovian
Edwin Maldonado
Doug O’Neill
47-1
17
Six Speed
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Bhupat Seemar
33-1
18
Further Ado
John Velazquez
Brad Cox
6-1
19
Golden Tempo
Jose Ortiz
Cherie DeVaux
25-1
21
Great White
Alex Achard
John Ennis
22-1
22
Ocelli
Joseph Ramos
D.W. Beckman
85-1
23
Robusta
Emisael Jaramillo
Doug O’Neill
84-1
