March Madness futures: where the value is now
Super Bowl Sunday is in the rearview, the Olympics are grabbing headlines, and the next massive sporting obsession is already loading: March Madness. In a little over a month, 68 teams will enter the bracket — and only one will be left standing to cut down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6.
Below are 10 title futures worth a look if you’re shopping for upside, momentum, and matchups that can travel in March.
Odds are from bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook (as of Feb. 16, 2026) and will move.
Longshots with real “second-weekend” juice
10) St. John’s (+5000)
St. John’s has had a few “wait…are they for real?” moments this season (including that rough loss to Kentucky), but the current version of the Red Storm looks locked in. They’ve ripped off 11 straight wins, and they’ve shown they can handle chaos — the Providence game on Saturday turned into a full-on melee with seven ejections.
The engine is Zuby Ejiofor (16.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and a team-best 3.5 APG). Everything runs through him, and the supporting scoring from Bryce Hopkins, Oziyah Sellers, and Ian Jackson keeps defenses honest. If this form holds, St. John’s becomes the kind of tough out nobody wants in a short turnaround tournament setting.
9) Texas Tech (+2500)
Texas Tech’s recent stretch has been a classic “buy the bounce-back” spot after a couple of frustrating losses (UCF, then Kansas). The signature statement: a huge road win over Arizona on Saturday.
JT Toppin is a matchup nightmare (nearly 22 PPG with 11 RPG), but the Red Raiders aren’t a one-man play. Christian Anderson runs the show like a pro: 7.7 assists per game and close to 20 points on top. Add in a team three-point clip around 39%, and you’ve got a profile that can survive neutral courts and tight endgames.
8) Purdue (+2000)
Purdue’s ceiling starts with its backcourt. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer give the Boilermakers a high-level guard pairing, and Smith’s 8.9 assists per game ranks second nationally — huge in March, when execution matters more than tempo.
Inside, Trey Kaufman-Renn adds the kind of footwork and versatility that creates foul trouble and forces help. If Purdue’s guards stay steady and the interior scoring holds up against athletic defenses, this is a bracket team nobody wants to see early.
7) Michigan State (+4500)
Michigan State is built the way Izzo teams usually want to be built: length, physicality, and transition pop. Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper make life miserable in the paint and on the glass, and they’re productive at the line — a sneaky difference-maker in whistle-heavy tournament games.
The catalyst is Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads college hoops at 9.2 assists per game while also pacing MSU in scoring (15 PPG). And if the Spartans get out in the open floor, Coen Carr is a nightly highlight waiting to happen.
Contenders that look “Final Four capable”
6) Florida (+1400)
The defending champs are right back in the conversation, winning 10 of their last 11. The scoring load is carried by Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon (a combined 30+ PPG), and Rueben Chinyelu provides elite rebounding (11.8 RPG). Transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have blended in as reliable double-digit contributors.
The concern is clear: three-point shooting (below 30%). Florida can absolutely win a title if it keeps punishing teams inside and living at the line — but cold perimeter nights add volatility to the futures case.
5) Duke (+700)
Duke’s ticket is powered by Cameron Boozer, who’s authoring a freshman season that’s already pushing into “legendary Durham storyline” territory: 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, with the ability to score from deep, midrange, or through contact at the rim.
Isaiah Evans brings confident shooting (nearly 15 PPG) plus defensive speed on the perimeter. And Duke has been battle-tested: 8 wins in 10 games vs ranked opponents. That résumé matters when the bracket turns into a survival test.
4) Iowa State (+1500)
The Big 12 is a grinder, and Iowa State is right in the thick of the top tier. The Cyclones’ latest proof-of-concept was the home blowout of Kansas, driven by suffocating defense that held the Jayhawks to 56 points.
Tamin Lipsey pilots the offense (13 PPG, 5 APG) even with his three-point struggles, while sniper Milan Momcilovicchanges the geometry of the court. With nearly 100 made threes and an absurd 51.6% from deep, he’s the kind of heater-prone weapon that can swing an entire weekend in March.
3) Houston (+800)
Houston sits atop the Big 12 at 11–1 (and 23–2 overall), and it looks exactly like the sort of program that can win six games in three weeks: disciplined, mean defensively, and fearless late.
Freshman star Kingston Flemings plays with veteran confidence, backed by Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan in a backcourt that pressures everything. Up front, Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr. erase space with length and bounce. The Cougars allow just 61 points per game — and that kind of defensive floor travels anywhere.
The favorites worth paying for
2) Arizona (+475)
Arizona was rolling at 23–0 before back-to-back close losses to Kansas and Texas Tech (both decided by fewer than four points). It’s not hard to imagine those losses acting more like a course correction than a collapse.
Freshman Koa Peat (6’8″, 235) is a matchup problem, Brayden Burries leads the scoring near 16 PPG, and 7’2″ Lithuanian big Motiejus Krivas is a constant interior dilemma — and notably has fouled out only once. If Arizona cleans up late-game possessions, the title path is obvious.
1) Michigan (+450)
Picking the current favorite isn’t always fun, but Michigan looks the part when it’s dialed in — and it’s handled major-name opponents with blowout-level authority at times. There have been a couple off nights, yet the overall profile screams “built for six wins.”
Transfer Yaxel Lendeborg has been enormous (14 PPG, 7 RPG, 3 APG) with real rim protection. Elliot Cadeau gives Michigan a true lead guard, and the shooting jump (near 40% from three) raises the ceiling. Add 7’3″ Aday Mara, who ranks second nationally with 2.8 blocks per game, and Michigan has size, spacing, and a tournament-proof defensive anchor.
